Most of us have witnessed at least one Barack Obama rally with the thousands of young people chanting yes we can. Much has been made of his supporters being the new Democrats and how they are energizing the party. But is all this enthusiasm really going to translate into Democratic votes from the young?
The old, bitter Hillary Clinton supporters have repeatedly warned that the young are fickle. They may show up to vote and they may not. Of course, their warnings have been made light of and the Obama supporters have ridiculed the very idea that their interest may wane after the excitement of the primaries.
Well, I think we can chalk one up for the wisdom of age. Polls show that yes, the under 30 voters are fickle.
And there is some evidence that the balance of enthusiasm has shifted and that young people — who seemed to turn out and vote for Obama in unusually high numbers in the primaries and caucuses — are no longer so enthusiastic about him.
The first bit of evidence comes from the July 10-13 ABC/Washington Post poll. It asked registered voters if they were “certain” to vote. Only 46 percent of voters under 30 said they were — substantially lower than the 66 percent who said so in the ABC/Washington Post poll taken Feb. 28-March 2, at a time when Obama was enjoying a string of primary and caucus victories and before the sermons of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright were circulated on youtube.com on March 13. The 46 percent of young voters saying in July they were certain to vote was far lower than the 79 percent of 65 and over voters who said they were. SOURCE
I personally expect the numbers to be even lower as The One continues to disappoint his more liberal leaning young supporters with votes like his FISA vote. Now that he has put off-shore drilling on the table I think even more of them will see that he isn’t as all about change as they thought and his rock star status will continue to diminish.
Meanwhile, the PUMA/Just Say No Deal movement is flourishing with media coverage and increasing numbers.
It appears that YES WE CAN isn’t the real issue, WILL WE is.
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